The plethora of spectrum bands used for LTE (Long-Term Evolution) will result in more expensive devices, and also make the ability to roam globally using the technology less likely, according to industry organisation GSM Association's research arm Wireless Intelligence.
Wireless Intelligence predicts there will be 38 different spectrum frequency combinations used in LTE deployments by 2015, thanks to ongoing spectrum auctions, license renewals and reallocation initiatives across a wide range of frequency bands, it said on Friday in a new report entitled "Global LTE Network Forecasts and Assumptions - One Year On."
That fragmentation will have several repercussions, according to Joss Gillet, senior analyst at Wireless Intelligence and author of the report.
The number of combinations means economies of scale won't be as good and prices won't come down as much as they could if fewer spectrum bands were used as volumes increase, Gillet said.
Today, an LTE-equipped smartphone costs about twice as much as a 3G-based device, which means operators have to heavily subsidise them to drive the market. But that isn't possible for operators to do in all parts of the world, because the average revenue per user is much lower than in, for example, the US.
Spectrum fragmentation also makes it more complicated and expensive to manufacture smartphones that can connect to the Internet using LTE all over the world.
Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa are the regions that will use the widest variety of spectrum combinations, while the situation in the U.S. and western Europe will be less complicated.
Not everyone agrees that spectrum fragmentation is the biggest problem facing the rollout of LTE. The ongoing development of more advanced chipsets will bridge the problems created by fragmentation, according to Bengt Nordström, co-founder and CEO of market research company Northstream.
He instead objects to the auctioning of spectrum. Governments are in effect taking money from operators that instead could be used for a more rapid rollout of LTE networks, Nordström said.
There will be more than 200 live LTE networks in over 70 countries by 2015, up from 40 networks in 24 countries today, according to the Wireless Intelligence report.
Meanwhile, the number of LTE connections is forecast to grow from approximately 7 million in 2011 to close to 300 million by 2015. Between 2011 and 2015, the total number of 3G connections - in which Wireless Intelligence includes LTE - will almost double to reach 3.4 billion.