People will adopt Windows Vista faster than they went for XP, according to one analyst.

Ovum software analyst David Mitchell has predicted that up to 15 percent of PC users will move to Vista within the first year. "That would make it the fastest-moving operating system ever," he claimed.

By comparison, between 12 to 14 percent of users switched to Windows XP during the first year of its release, Mitchell said.

The take-up will occur partly thanks to the Microsoft's Software Assurance licensing program where people get automatic upgrade to Vista, Mitchell said. "On the consumer side, there has been a bit of pent-up demand. Just look at the beta adoption in the consumer space - it's very high," he said.

However, in recent weeks people have been just as convinced that the opposite is true and Vista will not be taken up by either business or consumers. Altiris rubbished early claims
of Vista's adoption
, saying they should be taken "with a large grain of salt".

Both Gartner and Forrester Research have also said they expect Vista take-up to be slow - and, crucially, pointed out that XP's take-up was also sluggish. So while Mitchell's prediction may end up relatively accurate, the suggestion that beating XP is a sign of success may not be that valid.

Anecdotal evidence garnered by talking to CTOs on the ground have also shown that most companies are not looking to adopt Vista until after 2007.

Vista will be available to business customers from 30 November, with the operating system available to consumers from January. For users who buy a new computer before Vista is released to consumers, Microsoft is now shipping Vista upgrade coupons with computers that are sold with Windows XP.

Original reporting by IDG News Service