Another day, another dubious claim about Windows Vista likely failure or success.

By the end of 2007, less than five percent of all PCs worldwide will sport a business-oriented version of Windows Vista, according to Gartner. In comparison, the consulting firm predicted, 47 percent will be running Windows XP Professional, and nearly 10 percent will still have Windows 2000 Professional, which will be seven years old by that point.

Gartner said it expects the percentage of PCs running a business flavor of Windows Vista to rise to 15 percent of the overall total by the end of 2008. But that will still be dwarfed by the 40 percent on Windows XP Pro. And Gartner doesn't expect the number of business PCs running Vista to exceed the number with XP until 2010.

So Gartner thinks that Vista will be failure - at least next year. This compares to Ovum analyst David Mitchell predicting last week that 15 percent of PC users will move to Vista within the first year. "That would make it the fastest-moving operating system ever," he claimed.

Before that came Atiris rubbishing even earlier claims of Vista's impending super-adoption, saying they should be taken "with a large grain of salt".

Microsoft is urging businesses into action touting Vista's easier deployment and manageability and its stronger security. But Gartner analyst Michael Silver said that likely won't persuade most companies to deviate from their normal routines - staggered cycles of three to five years for hardware replacement.

What's more there's countless anedotal evidence that some companies are adopting it, and some aren't. "More than half of our clients are telling us that they're only bringing in Vista as part of their regular hardware refresh," Silver said.

But Sasfin Bank plans to start upgrading to Windows Vista by next March and have all 430 of its employees running the new operating system by the end of 2007. "We have a very spoiled user base," said Dawie Olivier, project manager for IT at the Johannesburg, South Africa-based commercial bank.

And then management product vendor FranklinCovey will get all 750 of its Windows users onto Vista next year - with plans to upgrade about two-thirds of its PCs to a minimum of 1GB of RAM, according Dan See, its director of infrastructure. And then there are those such as Marc West, CIO at H&R Block, who has no plans to upgrade to Vista until 2009 at the earliest.

In fact, the only surprising thing about the Vista rollout is that everyone continues to make such widely differing predictions when they have next to no information or likelihood of being accurate.

Original reporting by Computerworld